Protests Rock Iran Regime; Protestors Attacked, Arrested by Regime Forces -- GOPUSA

Protests Rock Iran Regime; Protestors Attacked, Arrested by Regime Forces
By Stephen Dewey
Talon News
June 16, 2003

TEHRAN, IRAN (Talon News) -- A wave of protests and reactionary violence is sweeping Iran in a trend that could have serious implications for the durability of the nation's regime.

Thousands of Iranian college students swarmed Tehran and two other cities for the fifth night on Saturday, as protests continued despite retaliation by pro-regime forces. Protestors went so far as to call for the death of Iran's leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The protests peaked on Friday and Saturday. On Friday, hard-line regime supporters invaded two college dormitories and injured a number of students. Several dozen college students were also taken from their dormitories by pro-regime forces, who usually enjoy the tacit approval of Iran's ruling clerics.

On Saturday, protests briefly erupted in the town of Gohardasht, but were eventually put down by riot police. Shortly thereafter, clashes between hard-liners and protestors resulted in the arrests of several dozen people.

Later on Sunday, four people accused of leading the protests were arrested by Iranian police. The AP reported that the arresting officers were in plainclothes. Sunday also saw the deployment of police around Tehran University to prevent future attacks on the students by hardliners, as the regime attempts to prevent the unrest from spreading.

The White House sided with the students on Sunday, calling on Iran to protect the protestors' human rights and release those who had been "arrested."

"Iranians, like all people, have a right to determine their own destiny, and the United States supports their aspirations to live in freedom," a White House statement read in part. "It is our hope that the voice of the Iranian people and their aspirations for democracy and the rule of law will be heard."

Bush characterized the unrest as "the beginnings of people expressing themselves toward a free Iran, which I think is positive."

The protests are just one event in a highly tense drama playing out behind the scenes involving the U.S., Iran, and the Iranian public. The U.S. has grown increasingly wary of Iran's nuclear ambitions and views the toppling of the regime as a matter of great importance.

The Weekly Standard has compared Iran's weapons program to "the Manhattan Project in 1943," meaning not only that Iran may be within two years of developing nuclear weapons, but also that it does not require much outside assistance in order to do so.

Barring a full-out military strike (which the American public might find undesirable) or covert action by the CIA, Bush's best option appears to be to encourage Iranians to topple their own theocratic regime.

White House statements supporting the protestors, therefore, represent an administration attempt to encourage the regime's overthrow from afar.

A number of factors make it likely that protests will increase in size as time goes on.

The recent invasion of Iraq is one such factor, since it shook up the Shia Muslim world and forced a debate on the merits of theocratic government.

Iran is a center of Shia Islam, and Iraq is also about 60 to 65 percent Shia. Since the invasion of Iraq, Iraq's Grand Ayatollah Ali as-Sistani, who the Weekly Standard says is "arguably the most senior Shia cleric in the Muslim world," has been receiving an increasing amount of tithes from Shia Muslims in Iran.

This is extremely worrisome to Iran's ruling clergy because as-Sistani opposes clerical involvement in politics. Iran is considered one of the most revolutionary Muslim nations in that its fundamentalist clergy have managed to gain control of the government. As-Sistani opposes this involvement, and thus essentially supports the toppling of Iran's government so that clerics can focus on Islam. It is likely that the university protestors currently agitating for democracy support as-Sistani, and will become emboldened as his profile grows in post-bellum Iraq.

A second factor contributing to instability in the Iranian regime is the presence of U.S. forces to the east in Afghanistan and to the west in Iraq. The military buildup of western forces is increasing tensions among the Iranian populace, who fear war and recognize that their current regime is antagonizing the U.S.

The U.S. has already invaded one of the three "axis of evil" nations, and all other factors being equal, Iranians fear that the U.S. would find it easier to invade Iran than North Korea.

The current situation leaves Iran's rulers in a quandary. If they do not discourage the protestors, civil unrest could grow into a coherent anti-government movement. Yet Iran's history has shown that when protestors are attacked by pro-regime forces, the populace tends to join the protestors in sympathy.

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